Sharks underlying numbers improve despite 3rd loss in 5 games

Lucas Burrell

— 3 min read
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Close up shot of Sharks rookie Ivan Stenberg
Photo provided by SJ Sharks X account. I do not own this photo but think it’s really nice.

Advanced stats suggest San Jose has been playing better lately. Why aren’t they winning games? 🕵️‍♂️

Earlier this month, the Sharks faced their first bout of adversity of the season. Macklin Celebrini missed two games with an undisclosed injury. San Jose flinched in the first game against Dallas, getting shut out. But in the second game against St. Louis, they proved they can win without their captain.

All this to say that it hasn’t been particularly easy for this team. Heck, it’s not easy for any team in the NHL to start the year, especially with the practically nonexistent preseason.

The Sharks overhauled their entire blueline in the hopes of reshaping their top 4. They're also looking to get the best out of their young forwards without making them shoulder all the weight of the high expectations this team carried into the season.

Let’s not forget that training camp started practically only a month ago, as of me typing this on October 20th, 2026 🤖. A lot has changed, so it’s understandable if things don't go well at first. Still, the numbers suggest things are starting to trend in the right direction.

The Team Knows 👁️

“We’re not playing bad hockey” the Sharks captain said after the team’s 3-1 loss on Monday night against Toronto.

With a 1-3-1 record since Mack returned to the lineup, it’s hard to believe this team is playing well. However, a closer look at key metrics shows Celebrini isn't that far off.

Discounting their first four games, including an abysmal game against Dallas that muddied their numbers, the Sharks look back on track.

Since Mack’s return against Edmonton on October 10th, the Sharks have a +27-shot differential (56% shots for percentage) at 5v5. Compare that to their -18-shot differential (44.5 SF%) at 5v5 in the first four contests.

Another stat that shows things are trending upward for San Jose is how well they generate and prevent scoring chances. I like looking at “scoring chances” from Natural Stat Trick in this case. They are subjective, but account for factors traditional shots on goal don't. Things like hit posts, fanned shots in the slot, and fumbled rush chances. They also filter out the noise of simple point shots and failed clears/chip-ins.

In the five games since Celebrini’s return San Jose has a 10+ scoring chance differential (52.5% scoring chance for percentage) at 5v5. Contrast that to the first four games’ results of a -48-scoring chance differential (38.25 SCF%) at 5v5 😷

These numbers are dramatically different and, best of all, are heading in the positive direction. The Win/Loss results don’t back this up (yet). But Mack and I’d assume the rest of the team know they are playing better.

Why aren’t they winning? 🏆

There are a number of reasons the stronger underlying numbers aren’t translating into wins. Things like inopportune penalties and questionable decisions from a young head coach, but based on the numbers, one thing stands out to me.

The team hasn’t gotten any puck luck. The Sharks are shooting 6.5% at 5v5. Last season San Jose shot at 10% at that same pace of play.

6.5% is even below the NHL average of 8 to 8.5%. Considering the Sharks' shooting talent and last season’s results, you can imagine they won't shoot this poorly forever.

Combine this with the shots for/scoring chance differential we spoke of earlier and you get a team who’s content with their on-ice play despite their record.

Overall, the Sharks are doing the right things, and lately the numbers back this up. If Team Teal can clean a few things up and learn from some of these early-season mistakes, they will start to stack wins without needing overtime or the shootout.

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