Stanley Cup Playoffs Western Conference Final Predictions
Oilers vs Stars
Things haven't been easy for any team playing on the Western side of the Stanley Cup Playoffs bracket. During their first two rounds, the Dallas Stars and Edmonton Oilers each needed a game-seven victory to advance to the next stage.
On paper, this match-up seems like a clash of styles. One team relies heavily on its top guys to make things happen, while the other likes to roll four forward lines and relies on its mobile defenseman to move the puck. It's going to be one hell of a series that will boil down to the details. Speaking of focusing on the details, let's explain how things might play out during this year's Western Conference Finals.
Match-ups at Even Strength
This series is for you if you're a hockey nerd like myself who hyper-fixates on one-on-one duels at the ice level. The Oilers have two of the five best skaters in the world at their disposal. With Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl capable of carrying a line, coach Kris Knoblauch has the luxury of having at least one of those guys for most of the game played at 5v5. This puts a ton of pressure on the Stars defensively and will likely have coach Peter DeBoer putting out his best defenders whenever they are on the ice.
Miro Heiskanen is one of those top defenders for the Stars, who will likely see the lion's share of his minutes on the ice against Connor McDavid. These two are phenomenal skaters and will likely top the charts regarding the distance traveled metric that NHL Edge tracks when this series is all said and done. McDavid hasn't matched up with a blueliner of Heiskanen's caliber this postseason. Seeing how things shake out when these two are on the ice will be interesting.
In addition, in that match-up, we will likely see a lot of defenseman Chris Tanev when Draisaitl is on the ice. What Tanev lacks in terms of overall foot speed is that he makes up for in hockey sense, hand-eye coordination and quick reactions that allow him to get the puck out of his zone. We will likely see Tanev a lot, starting in his zone against Edmonton's best.
At a glance, the underlying numbers suggest that the Oilers will have the advantage in this series at 5v5. They've outshot their opponents and dominated possession against both the Kings and Canucks. Conversely, Dallas has been outshot at 5v5 (mostly) in their series against the Golden Knights and Avalanche. And while I typically side with the numbers when it comes to making decisions, I'm convinced that if the Stars weren't forced to play the two previous Stanley Cup champions, they would have fared better. If the Stars can neutralize the likes of McDavid, Draisaitl, and Bouchard, their depth should carry them to the finish line.
Advantage: Dallas Stars
Special Teams Head-to-Head
The winner in this category should come as a surprise to no one. The Oilers are clicking on all cylinders on the power play this postseason. Edmonton leads all teams this postseason in power play percentage and has scored a whopping 15 goals. And while the Stars are very competent in their own right when they have the extra man on the ice, it isn't as much of an X-factor as Edmonton's.
The penalty kill units of these two are fairly even. But through the first two rounds of the Oilers, the Oilers have had better success. Edmonton currently holds the best penalty-kill percentage, but their quality of competition is nowhere near as tough as what Dallas has faced. I'll be keeping my eye on whether things change in this category once they get through a series with a team like Dallas. Still, I'll take the lone remaining Canadian team in this aspect of the game.
Advantage: Edmonton Oilers
Between the Pipes
My apologies to Oilers fans, but choosing which team has the advantage in goaltending is easy. Edmonton has struggled all postseason trying to find answers to its goalkeeping problems. Coming into the first round, the team felt relatively confident in its starter, Stuart Skinner. After all, he did keep this team afloat during the regular season after the Jack Campbell fiasco. However, after a string of inconsistent starts through the first two rounds, the team's and fan bases' confidence in the Alberta native netminder has taken a hit.
Conversely, the Dallas Stars feel pretty confident about their goalkeeping situation. Jake Oettinger has played well against some tough match-ups in the first two rounds. He successfully kept Vegas under three goals per game in the first series and followed that up with a solid series against the high-octane Avalanche. The path to the Western Conference Finals hasn't been easy, but the Minnesota-born netminder has proved why he is a bonafide starting goalie in today's NHL.
It isn't outside of the realm of possibility for the Oilers tandem of Skinner and Calvin Pickard to step up and steal a game or two for Edmonton. However, Oettinger's pedigree and track record make him the easy choice. And despite him dealing with an illness heading into Game 1. I'm still going to give the goaltending match-up advantage to the Stars.
Advantage: Dallas Stars
Who Will Make the Stanley Cup Final?
I'm not as big a fan of these two teams as I am of the participants in the Eastern side of the bracket. I like watching McDavid and company play hockey, but my rooting interest in them is very low. From the Star's perspective, outside of my desire to have Joe Pavelski lift the Stanley Cup, I have no interest in them winning either. My heart is leaning towards having both teams lose, but my head is taking me in a different direction.
Prediction: Stars in 7
